A physics-based stage difficulty score

A stage difficulty score based on physics and specific to each rider, meant to replace gradient-only profile scores.

The usual number for how hard a stage is, the ProCyclingStats Profile Score, is one particular way of weighting gradient and distance to the finish. It has never been calibrated against results, it depends on how the climbs are cut into segments, and it gives the same value for every rider.

Approach

I am building a difficulty score that starts from the physics of riding instead of from the gradient alone, and that is specific to the rider: the same stage can rank differently for a climber and for a sprinter.

For a team, this turns “how hard is this stage?” into “how hard is this stage for this rider?”.

Status

Work in progress. The target is a peer-reviewed journal paper.