DNF risk in self-routed ultracycling
In self-routed ultracycling races such as the Transcontinental Race, many riders who start do not finish. I wanted to know whether women and men differ in their risk of abandoning (DNF, “did not finish”) and what actually predicts it.
Approach
I used the public replay tracking of the Transcontinental Race No10 and No11: 568 solo riders, 81 women and 487 men. From the GPS tracks I detected stops, computed moving speed and built the time and distance each rider survived in the race. The analysis uses Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox models with a landmark at 48 hours, plus a route-aware analysis by distance.
Results
- Men rode about 2 km/h (around 10%) faster when moving. Stop time did not differ by sex.
- There was no difference in DNF risk between women and men (log-rank p = 0.61 by time and 0.85 by distance).
- After the first 48 hours, each extra hour stopped raised the later risk of abandoning by about 13%, and each extra km/h of moving speed lowered it by about 9%.
Early pacing and stop management, regardless of sex, dominate the risk of not finishing.
Status
The conference paper, Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10-No11), was accepted and presented at the Science & Cycling Conference 2026. I am now extending it into a journal article.